منابع مشابه
The Aggregation of Imprecise Probabilities
Two methods are presented for the aggregation of imprecise probabilities elicited from a group of experts in terms of betting rates. In the -rst method, the experts bet with a common opponent subject to limits on their personal betting stakes, and their individual and aggregate beliefs are represented by con-dence-weighted lower and upper probabilities. This method is applicable to situations i...
متن کاملImprecise Probabilities
Consider the uncertainty about whether it will rain in Brisbane next weekend. A weather forecaster may be able to assess a precise probability of rain, such as 0.3285 . . . , although even an expert should feel uncomfortable about specifying a probability to more than one or two decimal places. Someone who has little information about the prospects for rain may be able to make only an imprecise...
متن کاملComputation with imprecise probabilities
An imprecise probability distribution is an instance of second-order uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about uncertainty, or uncertainty for short. Another instance is an imprecise possibility distribution. Computation with imprecise probabilities is not an academic exercise—it is a bridge to reality. In the real world, imprecise probabilities are the norm rather than exception. In large measur...
متن کاملReasoning with imprecise probabilities
This special issue contains a selection of articles from the First International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities (ISIPTA). The symposium took place in Ghent, Belgium, during the month of June of 1999, under the organization of Gert de Cooman, Peter Walley, Sera®n Moral and Fabio Cozman. The success of the symposium led to the decision to hold a second one, to happen in Cornell, USA, in 200...
متن کاملForecasting with imprecise probabilities
We review de Finetti’s two coherence criteria for determinate probabilities: coherence1 defined in terms of previsions for a set of random variables that are undominated by the status quo – previsions immune to a sure-loss – and coherence2 defined in terms of forecasts for events undominated in Brier score by a rival forecast. We propose a criterion of IP-coherence2 based on a generalization of...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference
سال: 2002
ISSN: 0378-3758
DOI: 10.1016/s0378-3758(01)00213-0